Don Day Says Expect A “Roller Coaster” Of… | Cowboy State Daily

After a much-needed blast of winter weather, Wyoming is riding a roller coaster rebound of temperature and precipitation. That’s just fall in the Cowboy State.

Cowboy State Daily meteorologist Don Day said Wyoming is finally getting into its expected fall cycle after months of sustained warmth and dryness. Last week’s storm system that brought rain and snow to much of the state was “the dam break” everyone’s been looking for.

Now people can expect another rebound, he said.

“We are having warmer, drier days this week,” he said. “Instead of going for weeks, they will be two or three days. Then we'll have a front, and another two or three warm, dry days, then another front. It will be in that cycle for a while, and each consecutive front gets stronger.”

The winter weather system that moved across Wyoming last Thursday and Friday answered the prayers of firefighters working to contain the Elk and Pack Trail fires, which have burned more than 180,000 acres in northern Wyoming.

Although both fires are still burning, the situation on the ground has improved immensely because of the rain — and snow in higher elevations.

Incident command crews reported over the weekend that while the storm wasn’t a fire-killer, it did help cool off some of the hot spots that had been raging during prolonged hot, dry and windy weather.

The weather’s impact on the Elk Fire burning across the easter face of the Bighorn Mountains was enough to prompt local to hold a “Let It Rain” party on Saturday, a welcome relief after weeks of being threatened by the fire.

Otherwise, Day said the system did exactly what was expected. Northern and western Wyoming got the brunt of the snow and cold, while the rest of the state benefitted from what little moisture made it out of the mountains.

“That system was not going to do much over eastern and southeastern Wyoming,” he said. “Just a couple hundredths of an inch in Cheyenne, about the same in Laramie. So, you know, that was expected.

“But I could see it lined up pretty well with what was expected in the fire areas, with rainfall on the plains and snow in the mountains.”

Day also expected a “rebound” of warmer temperatures once the system moved on. That’s typical for this time of year.

“To use like a military term, that first system softened up the defenses,” he said. “It beat down the warm, dry pattern that was so stubborn. The sacrificial lamb, so to speak, was the first one, making the next ones easier.”

Now, Day expects a roller coaster ride as Wyoming eases into fall and winter. There are already signs that the next cold spell is coming.

“There's a pretty decent system coming through later this week,” he said. “Not a big storm, but another little Pacific front that will bring rain and snow to the fire areas so that both fires will get rain and snow again. That will happen Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and it will cool off behind that front.”

Once that system passes, Wyoming will experience another spell of warm weather. Then, the next cold system will move in from the Pacific in a few days.

“We'll warm up and dry out again over the weekend,” he said. “Then we're looking at possibly two systems or one large one moving into western Wyoming late Monday, then statewide on Tuesday and Wednesday that may go into Halloween.”

Halloween could signal the end of this season's roller coaster rebounds. Day thinks kids will once again hide their costumes under winter coats when trick-or-treating.

“Once we get into Monday night, all through Halloween it looks much colder,” he said. “I see rain and snow by the first of November. I don't know if it'll be a lot or a little, but that system will be much colder than the air that came through with this last one.”

These roller coaster rebounds aren’t unique to the summer-fall seasonal change. Ironically, Day said Wyoming’s incredible wind provides warmth during the coldest times of the year.

“When a big winter storm leaves, you’ll get a westerly wind coming off the east slopes of the mountains, and you'll get a warm-up,” he said. “That’s why we have so many ups and downs in the winter out in this part of the world, as opposed to, like, the Dakotas in the Upper Midwest, where the cold can settle in and it's hard to get rid of.”

These Chinook winds are another consequence of Wyoming’s geography, making it a natural wind tunnel. While Wyoming’s winds can create subzero windchills, they can also provide some relief other western states don’t experience during winter.

“We can have a big Arctic outbreak that can go multiple days, but as Arctic air moves away, we'll get a Chinook warm-up,” Day said. “You don't see the prolonged cold here that you get in North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota, where it just sets in for weeks and months on end.”

Nice Autumn Weather (For A Weekend)

For the next week, Day said Wyoming will experience the “fair, nice autumn weather” that’s been missing for most of October. Enjoy it while it lasts.

“It’s warm and dry for most of the state through Wednesday, with maybe some showers in northern Wyoming,” he said. “Then mountain snow, rain and snow showers, especially the north and the west, from Wednesday night through Thursday, hitting the areas that need it the most. Friday, Saturday, and Sunday are three days of fair, nice autumn weather before it gets cold and stays cold.”

Andrew Rossi can be reached at [email protected].

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